Could Chinese weapons assistance make Russia turn the tide in Ukraine?

War is an unsteady thing. Tides turn, allies are lost, and the opposing side frequently gains and then loses ground. As the Ukrainian war hits the one-year mark, we can see this throughout the war’s history. The small country of Ukraine was supposed to stand no chance against Russia with or without aid from other countries. But as we see one year later, their war is going successfully for Ukraine, and Ukraine is gaining ground back from the Russians. However there’s been a recent twist in the Russia- Ukraine battle, Russia has recently asked China for military aid, and china responded in the affirmative. We will be exploring how this will affect the war in Ukraine through three points: how the war is currently going, the specifics of the deal between China and Russia, and lastly, how this would impact the tides of the war.  

Currently, the war in Ukraine is going in, surprisingly, Ukraine's favor, all of the aid that Ukraine received from numerous countries has severely impacted the war. The ground that Russia has gained throughout the war has been slowly reducing as Ukrainian forces push back and gain more ground. Furthermore, Ukraine is set to receive even more military aid in the amount of billions as a new care package by the u.s government was just recently signed. 

Russia is feeling these losses, as they are not getting the aid that Ukraine getting, they're having to take reinforcements and backup from their own budget which is greatly impacting them. The US estimated that Russia will run out of serviceable ammo this year. This has severely weakened Russia and even though Russia is a big country, it is feeling the losses. Many people doubt that Russia has the aid to bring another counterattack, extending any more resources to the Ukrainian war would leave Russia extremely vulnerable to the outside world, which is a risk Russia is not willing to take. So the only step forward for Russia as they are losing the war is to get aid or help from other countries so that they can spring a counterattack on the Ukrainians, which brings me to my next point. The specifics of their new deal. 

Last year China and Russia announced an “all-out deal” essentially saying that they would go to all limits to help the other country. As Russia has asked china for military aid, and china agreed, confirming the shipment of military drones, high-tech equipment, and ammo that Russia needs so desperately. Researchers predict that china has already been sending aid to the Russians but this package would be a significantly greater amount than the last. Which brings me to my last point, how will this turn the tide in the war? 

The only thing that is holding back Russia from overtaking Ukraine is the loss of aid and ammunition. If these were restocked, then they would have a great advantage over Ukraine. The military equipment that china is sending them is very advanced and would give Russia an edge. This would greatly turn the tide of the war and could only be countered by more aid from the u.s or the e.u- which both are wary of giving after expending so many their own resources. 

In conclusion, we can see that the Chinese choice to back Russia is very significant. Russia is losing resources and running out of time, which is what the Ukrainians have been counting on to win the war. This arms support would not only ruin this advantage and benefit Russia, but make it even more technologically advanced in its warfare on the Ukrainian front, which would make the war even more challenging for the Ukrainians.

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